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Israel's central bank forecasts war with Hamas to cost $53 billion between 2023 and 2025, per the WSJ. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementNew estimates from the Israeli central bank forecast the war with Hamas to cost Israel roughly $53 billion between now and 2025, according to a Wall Street Journal report. By the end of 2024, the war will cut into Israel's GDP by 3%, in the Israeli central bank's view, even as policymakers work to stabilize financial markets and its currency. Thanks to central bank interventions, it's jumped about 9% over the last four weeks against the greenback, after the conflict had previously dragged the currency to an 11-year low.
Persons: Israel's shekel, , Amir Yaron, it's, Yaron Organizations: Service, Wall, Bank of Israel, greenback Locations: Israel
[1/2] The Bank of Israel building is seen in Jerusalem June 16, 2020. Israel's central bank has played its part too with a flurry of support measures, and has stayed away from rate cuts. At the outset of the war, markets were stunned. "The Bank of Israel took very aggressive action," said Gil Moshe, the head of markets at the Israel unit of U.S. bank Citi. Looking to next year, Shmuel Katzavian, a strategist at Israel's Discount Bank, expects the shekel to continue to strengthen.
Persons: Ronen, Israel's, Yaniv Pagot, Amir Yaron, Geoff Yu, Gil Moshe, Pagot, Shmuel Katzavian, Steven Scheer, Marc Jones, Jan Harvey Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, BNY Mellon, Reuters Graphics, Israel, Citi, Israel's Discount Bank, Thomson Locations: Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Israel's, Israel, U.S, London
Take Five: You (may) have arrived at your destination
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
No wonder markets see a 70% chance that the Fed's brutal 20-month tightening cycle is over and that rate cuts could begin as soon as June. So watch closely to see if the top central bankers push back against the cut chatter until inflation is truly tamed. Shekel, gold, oil response to the war5/RACE DAY RATE HIKEThe famous Melbourne Cup horse race runs on Tuesday, but some of the shortest odds are on an Aussie central bank rate hike over in Sydney that day. Three-year and 10-year Australian government bond yields have hit their highest since 2011, though backed off slightly on the Fed's hold. The Australian dollar has also rallied strongly against its New Zealand counterpart as rate expectations diverge.
Persons: Marc Jones, Dhara, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Lewis Krauskopf, BoE, Horton, Walt Disney, Mittal, shekel, Antony Blinken, Jordan, Luci Ellis, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima Talwani, Gareth Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ECB, FX, Bank of Japan, Reuters, eBay, Nvidia, UBS, ABN Amro, Allianz, Friday, U.S, Melbourne Cup, Westpac, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Australia, Gaza, Here's, London, Tokyo, Singapore, New York, Britain, U.S, Europe, Commerzbank, Israel, Gaza City, Iran, Sydney
Oct 23 (Reuters) - Outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Israeli stocks accelerated in the last two weeks, tracking a sharp slide in share prices as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas widens to other fronts. The iShares MSCI Israel ETF posted net outflows of $2.5 million between Oct. 9 and Oct. 20, leaving it with assets of $111.62 million, according to Lipper data. "The market doesn't like uncertainties," said Sammy Suzuki, head of emerging market equities at AllianceBernstein. Israel ETFs were underperforming most of their peers prior to Hamas' attack, said Steven Schoenfeld, CEO of Market Vector Indexes, who created the index behind the $78.4 million BlueStar Israel Technology . ETFs tracking Israeli technology stocks such as the BlueStar Israel Technology ETF and the $75.4 million ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF recorded net outflows of $1.9 million and $7.2 million, respectively, in the last two weeks.
Persons: Sammy Suzuki, Steven Schoenfeld, Israel's shekel, Bansari Mayur, Mark Potter Organizations: Health, Israel Technology, Israel Innovative Technology, Thomson Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Bengaluru
The conflict with Hamas that began October 7 will have widespread financial implications for Israel. A top Israeli economist said a recession in Israel is likely, and Fitch put the country's credit rating on watch for downgrade. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Yet in less than two weeks, Israel's shekel has weakened about 4.8% to hit multi-year lows against the dollar. The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Bank of Israel deputy governor Andrew Abir said policymakers would prioritize stabilizing the currency over growth.
Persons: Fitch, , Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joseph Zeira, Zeira, Israel's shekel, Andrew Abir, Lee Hardman Organizations: Hamas, Service, Tel, Israel's Defense Forces, Hebrew University, CNBC, Bank of Israel, Traders, Deutsche Bank, Financial Times, MUFG Bank Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Tel Aviv, Gaza, Israeli, Iran
Official data showed China's economy grew 1.3% in the third quarter, accelerating from 0.5% in the previous quarter and topping market forecasts for an increase of 1%. China's yuan hit a one-week high of 7.2905 per dollar, though it then retreated to 7.312. The China-sensitive Australian dollar , was last up 0.24% at $0.6381, while the New Zealand dollar was 0.18% higher at $0.5907. Reuters GraphicsThe euro was steady at $1.0571, while sterling was up 0.1% at $1.2194 after data showed British inflation failed to fall as expected in September. Israel's shekel was pinned to the weaker side of 4 to the dollar, around its lowest since 2015.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, I'm, Erik Nelson, Wells, Nelson, we're, It's, it's, Imre Speizer, Israel's shekel, Tom Westbrook, Harry Robertson, Shri Navaratnam, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Israel, Wednesday, New Zealand, Westpac, Reuters, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, LONDON, Gaza, China, Wells Fargo, Israel, Iran, U.S, Japan, Tokyo, Singapore, London
REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG/LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Bond yields rose on Tuesday and stocks steadied as markets continued to retrace last week's moves to safe-haven assets, focusing on corporate earnings prospects and the resilience of the U.S. economy rather than tensions in the Middle East. Benchmark 10-year bond yields in the U.S. and Germany (Bunds) rose around 5 basis points (bps) on Tuesday having risen 5-8 bps Monday - bond yields move inversely to prices. Israel's shekel remained on the weak side of the 4 per dollar level it softened to for the first time since 2015 on Monday. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday arrived in Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping even as the war in Ukraine raged on. If investors do not receive the coupon payment, all of Country Garden's offshore debts will be deemed in default.
Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Banks, BNY, Goldman Sachs, We're, Jorge Garayo, Joe Biden, Israel, Israel's shekel, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, BoE, Gold, Brent, Selena Li, Alun John, Shri Navaratnam, Ed Osmond, Alex Richardson Organizations: Deutsche, REUTERS, Bank of America, Treasury, Bund, Societe Generale, U.S, Israel, Hamas, Iran's, Tuesday, HK, Bank of England, Swiss, Venezuela, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, HONG KONG, U.S, Iran, Gaza, Beijing, Ukraine, Friday's, Washington, Israel, Hong Kong, London
A man looks at an electric board displaying the Nikkei stock average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2023. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) had climbed 1%, while oil prices and the U.S. dollar had fallen. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are about 15 basis points off 16-year highs, though they crept higher in Asia trade Tuesday to 4.7331%. The euro traded at $1.0549 and the yen hovered just short of the 150-per-dollar mark at 149.53. If investors don't receive the coupon payment, all of Country Garden's offshore debts will be deemed in default.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Kerry Craig, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Craig, Joe Biden, Israel, Israel's shekel, Bitcoin, Selena Li, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Tokyo's Nikkei, U.S ., Morgan Asset Management, Bank of America, Johnson, Netflix, Federal Reserve, Israel, Hamas, Iran's, HK, Brent, BlackRock, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Gaza, Iran, Zealand, Brent
The yen was pinned close to the key 150 per dollar level, keeping traders on edge for any signs of intervention by the Japanese authorities. The yen last fetched 149.62 per dollar, having slipped to 150.17 on Oct. 3, the weakest in a year, before getting some relief in a brief rally. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, eased 0.038% to 106.20, after dropping 0.36% on Monday. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressures in the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the dollar is likely caught in a range for now.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Powell, Masato Kanda, Israel's shekel, Charu, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Harker, Christopher Wong, Wong, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Swiss, Palestinian, Hamas, Saxo, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Reserve Bank of Australia's, News Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, East, Singapore, Australia's
Oil prices rose last week as investors priced in the chance of escalation in the world's top oil-producing region, while U.S. Treasuries and gold prices rose as traders bought safe-haven assets. Traders are waiting to see if the conflict draws in other countries, which would drive up oil prices further and deal a fresh blow to the global economy. Oil prices eased but were still above $90 a barrel after surging last week. Before Hamas' attack, market sentiment had been driven by the global economy and the idea that the U.S. Federal Reserve was planning to keep rates higher for longer. European government bond yields rose after European Central Bank officials reiterated concerns about inflation.
Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Fiona Cincotta, Antony Blinken, Cincotta, Israel's shekel, Kyle Rodda, Rodda, Elizabeth Howcroft, Kevin Buckland, David Evans, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Israel's, U.S, Traders, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, European Central Bank, Capital.com, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Israel, Gaza, Iran, East, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, London, Tokyo
Nervous markets eye Gaza as oil hovers above $90
  + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Netanyahu agreed to lift a blockade of water supplies to parts of southern Gaza after speaking with U.S. President Joe Biden. Brent crude futures reached a new recent high of $91.20 on Monday before easing back slightly to $90.84, following Friday's 5.7% surge. Japan's Nikkei share average (.N225) fell more than 1%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) lost 0.15% in early trading. On Friday, the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.98 and New York's S&P 500 (.SPX) declined 0.50%, although U.S. stock futures pointed 0.18% higher on Monday. Currencies overall retraced some of their moves from the end of the week, with the U.S. dollar index easing slightly to 106.55 from as high as 106.79 on Friday.
Persons: Androniki, Israel's shekel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Antony Blinken, Netanyahu, Joe Biden, Australia's, Chris Weston, Kevin Buckland, Lincoln Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Brent, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Gaza, Israel
Oil prices leapt nearly 6% on Friday, as investors priced in the possibility of a wider Middle East conflict. The first indicator of reaction to weekend developments will likely come when oil starts trading in Asia later on Sunday. Reuters Graphics"I have no clue whether markets will remain relatively well behaved," said Erik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit. The war between the Islamist group Hamas and Israel poses one of the most significant geopolitical risks to oil markets since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year. Rising oil prices are unlikely to have a significant impact on U.S. gas prices or consumer spending, analysts noted.
Persons: Violeta Santos Moura, Ben Cahill, Erik Nielsen, Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, it's, Nomura, George Moran, Matt Tracy, Dhara, Megan Davies, Muralikumar, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Hamas, Energy Security, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Reuters, U.S, Economic Outlook Group, European Central Bank, Chevron, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Kibbutz Beeri, Israel, Palestinian, Asia, UniCredit, Princeton , New Jersey, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Egypt, Washington, London
Global market reaction to a week of war in Israel
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Below are five charts showing the volatile response of global financial markets to this week's war between Israel and Hamas. 1/TAKING STOCKMSCI's main world stocks index (.MIWD00000PUS) has reacted to the conflict by notching up its best week in almost two months. But that may have more to do with global bond market borrowing costs which - after rising sharply and knocking the confidence of equity markets - have seen their biggest weekly drop since early June. Its more than 3% drop marks its biggest weekly fall since February when concerns about rule of law changes were still raw. Investors use CDS either as a protection tool or to speculate and this week the cost of buying Israel CDS has surged 80%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Israel, Brent, Moody's, Fitch, Marc Jones, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, GAS, Reuters, CDS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Iran, United States, Moscow, Ukraine, India
Bostic was partly responding to the outburst of violence in Israel and Gaza, said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet in New York. "You can pretty much count on the Fed taking that into its world view and that's only going to be lower rates." U.S. Treasuries rallied, pushing two-year yields to their lowest in a month, as safe-haven demand was driven by the ongoing Mideast bloodshed and dovish Fed comments. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury , which moves inversely to the price, was down 12.5 basis points at 4.6571%. The Swiss franc , a traditional safe-haven currency, was at 0.9045 to the dollar, which weakened about 0.21%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Trevisani, Treasuries, Shaun Osborne, Israel's shekel, They're, Chris Turner, Herbert Lash, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis, Mark Heinrich, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, American Bankers Association, U.S, Scotiabank, Traders, Bloomberg, Analysts, Columbus, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, . Treasury, ING, Swiss, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Israel, Gaza, New York, Toronto, Palestinian, London, Singapore
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 10, 2022. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday said the U.S. central bank does not need to raise rates any further, and sees no recession ahead. Late on Monday, top-ranking Fed officials indicated that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could keep the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate. U.S. Treasury yields fell on the comments but also partly in reaction to continuing violence in the Middle East. In late morning trading, U.S. 10-year yields were last down 10.6 basis points (bps) at 4.676%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Raphael Bostic, Israel, Stan Shipley, Brent, shekel, Amanda Cooper, Kane Wu, Stella Qiu, Christina Fincher, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Treasury, Federal, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed Bank, Cash Treasury, Columbus Day U.S, Fed, ISI, Dow Jones, U.S, Garden Holdings, HK, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, East, Israel, Gaza, New York, London, Hong Kong, Sydney
Moves were relatively muted as traders waited for more Fed officials to speak later in the day, as well as minutes from the last Fed meeting to be released on Wednesday and U.S. inflation data on Thursday. The euro was last up 0.12% against the dollar at $1.0581. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six peers, was last up less than 0.1% at 106.05. The Swiss franc , a traditional safe-haven currency, was last flat, with the dollar trading at 0.9068 francs. Fed officials Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly are due to speak later on Tuesday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Simon Harvey, Israel's shekel, They're, Chris Turner, Israel, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Hamas, Bloomberg, Columbus, Treasury, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, . Treasury, ING, Swiss, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, London, Singapore
New Israeli Shekel banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken November 9, 2021. The weekend attack and retaliatory strikes by Israel have claimed more than 1,500 lives, raising fears the region could face a prolonged wave of conflict and violence. Stocks, bonds and currencies of Israel and neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt have come under severe pressure in recent days. The Bank of Israel announced on Monday it would sell up to $30 billion of foreign currency in the open market to stabilise the currency. Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Amanda Cooper; Graphic by Marc Jones, Editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Nir Elias, JPMorgan's Zafar Nazim, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Marc Jones, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of Israel, Reuters Graphics JPMorgan, Gulf Corporation, Key Tel, Thomson Locations: Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Gulf, Key Tel Aviv
It was a paid ad by a group of high-tech companies protesting against Netanyahu's judicial policies, which analysts say have unleashed a slew of risks, both for Israel's economy and for his own political future. Israel's shekel moved on every twist and turn in parliament as efforts to reach a judicial compromise intensified and finally crashed. For now, Israel's economy is relatively robust, with growth forecast at 3% this year and unemployment at a 3.5% rate. Even if Netanyahu chooses to scrap plans for further judicial changes, damage will be hard to fix. The tech sector has a lot to lose if more controversial judicial changes come because firms need a trusted legal system to protect their intellectual property.
Persons: Netanyahu, Moody's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's shekel, Morgan Stanley, Itzchak Raz, Netanyahu's, They're, Raz, Avi Hasson, Nicholas Farr, Amir Yaron, Amotz Asa, Asa, Shalom Hartman, Maayan Lubell, William Maclean Organizations: Government, Hebrew University, Israel Innovation Authority, Nation Central, Capital Economics, Analysts, Bank, Thomson Locations: JERUSALEM, Israel, Jerusalem
... Read moreSummaryCompanies Crucial tech sector hit by judicial reform crisisStartup funding falls 70%, emigration increasingTech execs take lead in opposing reformJERUSALEM, July 12 (Reuters) - A leading Israel investor on Wednesday predicted that the country's vital tech sector would recover quickly from its current funding downturn, in part by fighting a government judicial reform plan many blame for scaring away investment. A key driver of economic growth in Israel, the tech sector saw its funding hit last year by the global economic slowdown. "The big inventors are the warriors of democracy," Margalit told Reuters on the sidelines of a JVP Climate Tech conference. While the tech sector needs a stable Israeli economy, the economy needs a strong tech sector, which accounts for 14% of jobs and almost a fifth of gross domestic product. The fall off in tech funding has been a major factor in the weakening of the shekel , analysts say.
Persons: Erel Margalit, Benjamin Netanyahu's, Margalit, Barak Eilam, Eynat Guez, Israel's shekel, Steven Scheer, Conor Humphries Organizations: Jerusalem Venture Partners, AccorHotels Arena, Tech, Labour Party, Reuters, JVP Climate Tech, NICE, Tel, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, JERUSALEM, Israel, Israel's, Tel Aviv
[1/5] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, amid demonstrations after he dismissed the defence minister as his nationalist coalition government presses on with its judicial overhaul, in Jerusalem, March 27, 2023. REUTERS/Ronen ZvulunJERUSALEM, March 28 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paused his signature plan to overhaul Israel's judiciary after a day of nationwide turmoil when workers joined a general strike against the proposal and hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets. His dismissal by Netanyahu led thousands to take to the streets and Israel's President Isaac Herzog to urge a halt. An early rally in Israel's shekel currency fizzled out after Netanyahu suspended the overhaul with its eventual fate uncertain. While opposition parties gave a cautious welcome to Netanyahu's decision to suspend the overhaul to allow time to reach an agreement, many protesters remained mistrustful.
Thousands of Israeli protesters rally against Israeli Goverment's judicial overhaul bills in the coastal city of Tel Aviv on February 25, 2023. Gili Yaari | Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesPrime Minister Netanyahu has labeled the protests — which are now approaching their third month — an attempt "to create anarchy" and trigger another election. In short, the proposed judiciary overhaul will severely limit the Israeli Supreme Court's ability to review and strike down laws that it deems unconstitutional. The Knesset — Israel's parliament — voted last week to advance a major part of the reforms. The prime minister himself is currently under investigation on numerous counts of corruption and other charges, meaning he would likely benefit from a weaker judiciary.
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